maybe Mr. Messick can crunch some numbers and determine the year

I'll settle for Wild Card *.*

Lately I've been pushing back my estimate to 2011. I'd SO love to be wrong about that and have them win in 2010.

Bags…if I could do that I would be a very wealthy man right now.

I'm with you I'd settle for a wild-card…hell's bells I'd settle for 82 wins…81 wins…

Stanhouse, im digging your optimism and hoping youre right on either year



Jack, i was going to ask you for lotto mega million numbers next, but I will settle for pick three :wink:

Well, I would say it took the Rays about 5 years of true building to win the division. Their first several years were wasted years for them and it really wasn't until 2003 or 2004 that they actually looked like they had a directed plan for building.

So for the O's then, since they started a focused building plan last year and judging from the state of their farm system...I would say sometime around 2012 or 2013.

2013. First you have to learn how to win. Not everyone can be like the Rays.

If MacPhail was Friedman, we'd be more like the Rays.

He's not and my guess is 2015 at the earliest.

Let's see, in 2002 it was 2005. In 2005 it was definitely 2008 since we had Bedard and Chen anchoring the staff, soon to wow the league Penn and Rakers coming, and Birkens, Morris, Ray, Rleal about to make their splash. Bigbie was to come into his own in the OF along with Markakis and the power-hitting Gibbons in right, with Tripper Johnson at third.

I'd say, about 2 years after they lose the irons in the fire, we can grow a row of pork chops and T-bone steaks beside the corn in the backyard mentality, and sign some players.

Kinky Friedman?

Damn, all McPhail has needed all this time is a cowboy hat and a cigar.

And the little mustache/goatee like Kinky wears. Always liked the mustache...

Just as a reminder (which seemingly the entire baseball watching world appears to need), Tampa's success did not necessarily come out of nowhere. They conveniently ignore the years of losing and the high draft picks that were stockpiled as they built the quality in their organization. I'd say Tampa's 2008 edition was about 4 or 5 years in the making, the first 2 or 3 of which preceded Andrew Friedman's hire and which were key to the Rays' success.

My heart says 2013 as that would have been the 30year anniversary of the 1983 win. My head tells me 2017.

By way of decidng the fate of the division long-term, what do you think will happen when the Rays have to open the wallet in a couple of years and start paying these kids? A Marlins-style fire sale and rebuild, or no?

Can it happen any other way?

Fire sale!

I dunno...stable new ownership, new ballpark, new and expanding fanbase. Florida never had any of those things, even after they won the World Series 10 or 11 years ago.

The new ballpark is on hold.