My hopefulness does not let me stretch to the thought that the Os could win a Division Title.

When will they be mediocre, like .500?

2011?

I predict statistical mediocrity on Opening Day.

Next year.

No, seriously. Really. Stop laughing.

Lately I've been pushing back my estimate to 2011. I'd SO love to be wrong about that and have them be .500 in 2010.

2014 sounds about right to me.

In all seriousness, I don't think that's farfetched.

I personally don't think it will come that fast, but I would not at all be surprised if you were right.

It obviously depends on what they do this offseason, but the pitching can't possibly be as bad as is was this year again, can it? Even if next year's offense can't replicate this year's, with the addition of two real MLB pitchers, you could realistically be looking at 79-80 wins next year without adding any bats.

Long term, I'm thinking that Toronto will be on the decline and that no matter what the Yankees buy this year, it won't gel as early as next year. Still, in the next couple of years you could have exactly the opposite of what's been happening in the NL West - you may see every team in the AL East well above .400, especially if the AL keeps dominating interleague play.

Then again, I could be just talking out of my ass.

Even if they were to go out and sign Burnett or a mid-level pitcher that's out there, I think the O's will still have no choice but to let some of their kids learn on the job. That could mean opportunities for Troy Patton, David Hernandez, Brandon Erbe and maybe even their three superstud prospects: Tillman, Arrieta, and Matusz.

You never do know what you're going to get out of an inexperienced rotation like that. But if they throw OK and the O's continue to score runs, .500 isn't farfetched at all.

In a lot of ways, I actually feel sort of good about where the O's are. They know what they need to address and they seem to have some real options for addressing those needs from both within and outside the organization.

What this is is that we are back to where we were in 2004 where we had an above average lineup and huge question marks surrounding the starting rotation. Bedard, Cabrera, and Penn didn't work out. Now they need production out of Patton, Erbe, Tillman, Matusz, Arrieta, and others.

Good observation.

Oh! Let's hope that the Orioles aren't like some ice-frozen comet that only approaches contention, however distantly, on a cycle that long. Still, it could be worse. We could be riding Pittsburgh's comet.

Sluggo:

My friend, your first and second posts both passed the smell test, so my guess (from this distance) is that you are OK on this one.

If they could stop the end of the year collapses I would say 2010, but more realistically 2011. Next year will hopefully be the year where they avoid the end of season collapse.

Winning half of their games would be a start :lol: